FOREX MARKET

If money management is one half-of trading, determination of entry/exit points constitutes the other half. No amount of successful analysis will be useful if we can't determine good trigger points for our trades. Even if we know that the value of a currency pair will appreciate in the future, unless we have a clear conception of when that appreciation will occur, and where it will end, our knowledge is unlikely to bring us great profits. Similarly, even in the unfortunate situation where the analysis that justified the opening of a position is false, mastery of trade timing might allow us to register positive returns due to the high volatility in the forex market. Clearly, we need powerful strategies to help us calculate the best trigger values for a trade justified by careful and patient analysis.

We have discussed the various ways of creating stop-loss orders on this website, and in this article we'll continue on that theme by handling this subject in a more general way by identifying some principles for the management of our positions. The opening and closing of a position are the most frequent activities of any trader; it is obvious that this should also be the subject to which we devote the greatest attention. However, as in the case of a doctor or an engineer, the final task that is performed routinely and most frequently depends on certain skills, education and study which for the most part lack any obvious relationship to it. Thus, it is important to note that the study of trade timing is one of the final lessons for which the trader must prepare himself. The other courses that would lead us to this subject, such as technical and fundamental analysis, may not always have clearly definable benefits at first sight, but they pave the way to our ultimate goal of timing our trades successfully and profiting from them.

Before going into the technical aspects that complicate our trading decisions, we must say a few words on the necessity of emotional control in ensuring a successful and meaningful trading process. Let's repeat again, as we've done many times on this site, that without proper control over our feelings not a single word in this text would help us to trade profitably. The psychological endurance necessary for achieving a successful trading career is an important precursor to both money management and trade timing. Consequently, even before beginning the study of trade timing, we must concentrate our energies toward the goal of understanding and restraining our emotions, and gaining control over the psychological aspects of decision-making in a trading career. The Main Principle of Trade Timing

The first principle of trade timing is that it’s impossible to be certain about both the price and the technical pattern at the same time. The trader can base his timing on the actualization of a technical formation, or he can base it on a price level, and he can ensure that his trade is only executed when either of these events occur, but he cannot formulate a strategy where his trade will be executed when both of these occur at the same time. Of course it is possible that by chance a predefined price level is reached precisely at the time that the desired technical pattern occurs, but this is rare, and unpredictable.

Supposing that the trader is desiring to buy one lot of the EURUSD pair, he has the option of basing his entry point on the realization of a technical pattern, or the reaching of a price. For example, he may decide that he’ll buy the pair when the RSI indicator is at an oversold level. Or he may decide, for money management purposes, that he’ll buy it at 1.35, to reduce his risk. Similarly, he may choose to place his stop-loss order at the price point where the RSI reaches 50, or he may choose to enter an absolute stop-loss order at 1.345, to cut losses short. But due to the unpredictability of the price action it is not possible to define an RSI level, and a price level at the same time for the same trade.

We may examine this further on a chart.

This is an hourly chart of the GBPUSD pair between 5 December 2008 and 5 January 2009. We’re supposing that we opened a long position at around 1.5, where the RSI registered an extreme value at 24. In this case we expect to close our position when the value of the indicator rises above 50, to acquire healthy profits while not risking too much by staying in the market for long. We could have alternatively placed a real stop-loss order at 1.48, for example, but we decide not to do so because of the high volatility in the market. However we do expect that if the RSI rises, we will not need a stop-loss order, because the price would have been at a higher level indicating a profit, since it’s supposed to rise with a rising price.

But such is not the case, as we can see in the picture above. When the RSI had risen to 49.35 on the chart, which is a close enough point for our goal on the indicator, our position is, surprisingly, in the red. Not only do we fail to match our stop-loss to a lower price, but we actually match a lower price with our take profit point, which was 50 as mentioned. To put it shortly, the indicator converged on the price action, contrary to our expectation that it would move in parallel.